Global Warming Data and Facts

From Richard S. Lindzen, MIT, Cambridge, MA

Richard Siegmund Lindzen Ph.D. (b. February 8, 1940, Webster, Massachusetts) is a Harvard trained atmospheric physicist and Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The following are some of his observations and conclusions:


1. CO2 has been increasing since the early 1800s, well before the industrial revolution
2. CO2 is a minor atmospheric constituent, (.003%) and as such it’s variations are not important.
3. Increased CO2 also stimulates the growth of vegetation
4. As far as we know, there is no direct adverse effect of CO2 on human beings.
5. Although models suggest a global warming (since 1880) of 2-5C, observable data cannot even show a .5C increase in temperature; and anything less than .5C simply show negative feedback.
6. [Global Temperatures] The determination of the globally averaged temperature is virtually impossible.
a. Temperatures vary widely even over short distances.
b. Two thirds of the earth’s surface is water, and we have no permanent monitoring stations over the earth’s oceans. Observations come from ships, which are rarely in the exact same spot when reporting, nor do they present a controlled reporting environment.
c. There is also “natural variability” from year to year, regardless of CO2 increases or decreases, so the cause of variability is subjective, or unknown entirely.
d. None of the three standard observable calculations indicate any significant temperature change since the mid 1800s. (Possibly a quarter of a degree)
e. On the basis of the records available, the best estimate for the global temperature change that has occurred over the industrial period, does not significantly vary from zero, suggesting that current models are exaggerating expected warming.
f. Data suggests it was warmer prior to 1880, than afterward.
g. The major sharp increase occurred prior to 1940, after which, temperatures dropped, causing experts to predict an ice age. In 1960, temperatures began a slight increase.
h. There is clearly variance in the record on all time scales.
i. The absence of any significant trend in the contiguous 48 states, leads to the suspicion that all the trends in the global record may be spurious.
j. Since 1978, satellite soundings over the 48 states correlate excellently with the land based thermometric record.
k. Computer models do not even accurately simulate present day regional variations, calling into question their global variations.
l. About the only thing the models agree on is that warming temperatures will be greatly exaggerated in polar regions. Observations show that the arctic is not warming, but cooling.
7. [Green House] Given the data alone, we would have little basis for alarm regarding the greenhouse effect. The alarm, instead, comes from theoretical considerations.
a. The earth’s current average temperature (15 degrees C), is close to the “black body” temperature (the temperature without any greenhouse warming).
b. All models showing a doubling of the CO2 level, both in the past, and at present, fail to reveal any significant green house effect. These models also predicted a warming effect, over the past 100 years, in the polar regions; however, the predictions are contradicted by the observed cooling in polar regions.
c. [Models]The remarkable thermodynamic characteristics of water, lead to its acting as nature’s thermostat. Yet, the major numerical models all give water a positive warming effect, showing that the effect of doubling CO2 to be much less than the models predict.
d. Water is a far more important green house gas than CO2.
e. Although the green house absorption is primarily important above 5km (from the surface of the earth), greenhouse models attribute it at all levels of the atmosphere. Ignoring the fact that convection and lower cloud formation significantly reduces the green house effect above 5km.
f. Global warming leads to drying of the upper atmosphere above 5 km (as opposed to moistening which occurs in most models) and leads to the elevation of the altitude at which convected heat is deposited, producing negative, rather than positive, green house effects.
g. Consistent with past data, models should predict a warming effect of only a few tenths of a degree.
h. The current state of our understanding of climate hardly justifies a consensus over the response of climate caused by the theoretical doubling of CO2.
8. If there is any single major impediment to understanding climate, it may very well be the lack of capable scientists.
9. It is difficult to imagine any practical action that will make much difference to the final outcome (of climate).
10. Large changes in CO2 emissions (20-40%) will, at most, reduce warming by a fraction of a degree.